What we know: The exact update rule. At
every single step, we know precisely what will happen:
compute the gradient, multiply by learning rate, subtract
from parameters.
What we don't know: How the program that results from repeatedly applying the update rule works internally.
A tiny neural network learns to classify pixel patterns.
Watch the weights visualization evolve. These
weight patterns emerge from nothing but gradient descent. You
didn't design them. They're emergent.
The floating-point numbers in those weights
are executable code—a program that successfully
classifies patterns. But the program is inscrutable. It
works, we just don't automatically understand how. Hit "RESET NETWORK" and
watch completely different weights emerge. Same algorithm,
different solution every time.
Why this matters: This is the essence of
modern AI. We design the optimization process, not the
system itself. We understand the principle (minimize loss via
gradient descent), but cannot predict what features,
representations, or behaviors will emerge from billions of
these simple steps. GPT-4 is just this, scaled up.
Modern AI systems are grown, not built.
"We have a very good idea of sort of roughly what it's doing. But as soon as it gets really complicated, we don't actually know what's going on any more than we know what's going on in your brain."
60 Minutes (Pelley: "What do you mean we don't know exactly how it works? It was designed by people.") "No, it wasn't… we designed the learning algorithm… But we don't really understand exactly how they do those things."